by Peter Löcke //
Fight, do the work and tackle it.
This is what German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to do to solve the country's problems. At least that's what he said at the beginning of the ZDF summer interview with journalist Diana Zimmermann on September 8 [1]. In the sad expectation that the rest of the interview would be on a similar level of empty words, I found myself thinking about enhancing my evening coffee with cognac. I stayed sober, because the interview turned out to be more interesting than I had initially feared. The end of the interview, with which I would like to begin, was particularly exciting. Quote from Olaf Scholz:
"I think this is the time to discuss how we can get out of this war situation and achieve peace more quickly than it currently seems."
The Chancellor said this sentence without need, as the question was aimed in a different direction. The ZDF journalist simply wanted to know whether Olaf Scholz still trusted Volodymyr Selensky after the latest information that Ukraine had been involved in the attack on Nordstream. The journalist was on her toes, interrupted Scholz, followed up and wanted to know whether there would be peace talks, whether there would be a peace conference. Scholz confirmed:
"There will definitely be another peace conference and the President (editor's note: Selenskyi) and I agree that it has to be one with Russia."
Eureka! Did a peace bomb surprisingly explode here in the interview, even if that is admittedly an unfortunate metaphor given the topic? Aren't the Chancellor's words actually pure Wagenknecht and AfD-speak from Putin trolls? Why exactly should now be the right moment to do what has been categorically ruled out since February 2022?
A look back at June 15, 2024, less than three months have passed since then. That's when Olaf Scholz gave a summer interview to WELT [2]. For me, it feels like yesterday. Germany was rejoicing because the day before, Nagelsmann's players had beaten Scotland 5:1 on the soccer pitch. The chancellor's assessment of the geopolitical chessboard in the aforementioned WELT interview was as follows: Joe Biden was clear in his head, Joe Biden knew exactly what he was doing and he would win the election in November. The G7 countries promised Ukraine a further 50 billion. That was a message to both Ukraine and Russia. Victor Orban was criticized by Scholz for what Scholz himself is proposing today. The scoundrel Orban held peace talks with Russia. The creed was: No talks with Russia! No dictatorial peace! There will be no dictated peace with Russia, which must be defeated on the battlefield. So why this surprising 180-degree change of heart?
Well, it doesn't come as much of a surprise, as it had been on the cards for the past week. There is hardly a bigger hardliner and Russia-hater than the former Ukrainian ambassador Andrij Melnyk. Even he made an appeal to the Chancellor in a recent interview with the Berliner Zeitung last Friday, calling on Scholz to engage in diplomacy with Moscow [3].
Ukraine continues to be assured of full solidarity in this much-cited Russian war of aggression. That is true. The sole monster is and remains Putin. Nevertheless, the Chancellor's about-turn is remarkable and we can speculate as to why the "right moment" for talks with Russia has come. Has the negotiating position for the West improved thanks to sanctions? Or is it the other way around and the self-proclaimed Western values are pulling the ripcord for economic reasons alone? What is the military situation on the battlefield? Is it more favorable for Russia or positive for Ukraine? There are already heated discussions in the social media and the analysis is usually adapted to one's own world view. As so often in life.
I would also like to put my analysis up for discussion and leave it to the reader to decide whether my explanation is conclusive or whether it is a crude conspiracy theory. To do this, everyone must first ask themselves what role Germany is playing in the Ukraine war or in the world at large?
Is Scholz a player on the geopolitical chessboard or just a pawn moved by the real players? In my opinion, Germany is first and foremost a recipient of orders from the USA. The self-perception of many German politicians and the media about their own importance in world politics bears no relation to the real power that Germany wields. When Scholz, Baerbock, Habeck & Co visit major "players" abroad, such as China, this is hardly noticed in the local media. Often enough, Germany's highest political personnel are fed with interlocutors from the second or third tier of the local country's leadership, where the Chancellor, Economics Minister or Foreign Minister are on a state visit.
The biggest player on the geopolitical chessboard is and remains the USA. Elections will be held there on November 5, 2024, which will be far more decisive than those in Thuringia, Saxony or Brandenburg. Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? The outcome of the election will not only have an impact on the USA, but on the entire world. After the attack on Trump, the pendulum swung in his direction; after the change of candidate from Biden to Harris, the pendulum swung towards the Democrats. Now that many Americans are realizing that Kamala Harris is not only glowing from within, but that her answers are often irradiated in terms of content, the mood in the country is changing again [4]. The latest polls show Donald Trump ahead. And Kamala Harris' advertising message that she stands for a change in policy seems implausible, as she helped shape the current policy as Vice President for years.
The current administration therefore urgently needs successes to prevent Trump, who claims to be able to end the war in Ukraine immediately. What's more, with him, with Donald Trump, the war would not have happened in the first place.
What greater triumph could there be for the current US administration than to end the war in Ukraine, which is also costing the American taxpayer a lot of money, before November 5 and to sell this to the public as its own success? That is my bold analysis and assumption.
A crude conspiracy theory and a crackpot idea? That may be true, because it is indeed just a hypothesis. For me, however, the much more far-fetched theory is the belief that Olaf Scholz came up with the idea overnight after a conversation with Volodymyr Zelensky that now is the right time for peace negotiations with Russia.
And so back to the German chancellor's summer interview with ZDF journalist Diana Zimmermann. She takes a critical look at him several times, which I found just as commendable as the fact that ZDF allows comments on its YouTube channel as an exception. They were not exactly kind to the chancellor. Scholz is evasive in the interview. Any criticism rolls off him. The vote of confidence, for example, was just a "little opposition idea". At one point, however, he is somewhat critical of the public's disappointed expectations.
"(...) But let me also say this, because I find this very important when we discuss elections; of course the election results that we have now seen also have something to do with the fact that some citizens do not agree with the fact that we are supporting Ukraine. I think it is right that we do so (...)".
Astonishing. The Chancellor's answer is astonishing simply because Diana Zimmermann asked about the government's poor poll ratings and not specifically about the Ukraine policy.
Fight for peace, Mr. Chancellor. Do your job and get to work. You have my blessing. It's just a shame that you waited so long for someone else to give you their blessing.
Articles identified by name do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the publisher.
English 
German 
Spanish
3 Responses
Yes, a change of direction is needed! This process is now getting underway, because more and more citizens are experiencing the consequences of the disastrous policies of the traffic lights first hand. That always helps. You can shield narratives from reality for a while, but not forever. What really shocks me, however, is the naivety of Chancellor Scholz, who is actually trying to pull the wool over people's eyes. And the stupidity with which our "feminist foreign policy" continues to act in the world and destroys the trust that has been built up in Germany over decades. Instead, the Greens and some members of the FDP are now bringing libel suits against citizens who express harsh criticism. Where would FJS be? In prison because he called Wehner a traitor to the fatherland. What did I write before the last federal elections? People, vote for the Greens en masse. Then the misery will end sooner. And I was proved right. What did my grandmother, born in 1896, say? If you don't want to hear, you have to feel!
Well, I don't think you're wrong. But things are coming together that suddenly make the word peace conference possible in the mouths of Western hardliners. Firstly, the money. There is simply no more money for the war in Ukraine if the path to debt is limited. Not counting reconstruction. And the main burden is to be borne by Germany. Secondly, the West realizes that more and more weapons are useless if the men are missing and the country is bled dry and completely destroyed. And the Western war criers don't want to risk nuclear war after all. Everyone can see that Ukraine is finished. Twelve million refugees, no budget from its own resources, the energy infrastructure destroyed, corruption everywhere, etc. On the other hand, the war has weakened the West's position in the second and third world. Thirdly, the strengthening of the right-wing fringe in the EU also has a lot to do with people's war-weariness. Especially when money is scarce and would be better spent on urgent measures in Germany. Fourthly, if Trump comes and makes peace, with whatever formula, every euro for more weapons is a bad deal. All of this means that realpolitik is suddenly the order of the day. What a miracle! But that's how what we call politics works!
The penny dropped slowly, but fortunately it did: Peace negotiations with both sides! We are gradually moving from the post-factual to the pre-factual, with the threat of losing power, reality is coming back into fashion for many. Donald ante portas, the wild man from America is casting his shadow ahead. The change of power there already seems to be a foregone conclusion, the people in the East are demonstrating the political development of young people in particular, the Russians are winning on the Eastern front, as they have always done since 1800, the narrative of the RKI is collapsing and the sanctions against Russia and the hypotheses on climate change are plunging Germany into a deep crisis. Not forgetting uncontrolled immigration, which is now leading to open violence on our streets. The bottom line is that new challenges have been created over the last twenty years and not one of them has been met, many Germans believe. The polls show this clearly. If the Greens, according to Chinese estimates fascist!, and left-wing parties do not want an AfD majority, now would be the time to change course, and I very much hope that we all succeed.